2026 F1 title race: who can still win it
Both championships after round 16 of 23, with every contender still mathematically in the fight and the earliest round either title could be settled.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli could seal the title at the United States Grand Prix, round 18 of 23.
Leading on 320 points, 84 clear of George Russell, with 183 still available across 7 rounds, one of them a sprint weekend. 6 drivers are still in the fight.
Mercedes could seal it at the same round.
Leading on 556, 151 clear of Ferrari, with 316 available. 4 teams are still in it.
Drivers
6 of 23 drivers can still reach the leadThe solid bar is what they have scored. The faded bar is everything they could still reach. Cross the dashed line and the title is mathematically possible.
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Out of the fight: after the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, Oscar Piastri · after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Liam Lawson, Isack Hadjar · after the Spanish Grand Prix, Gabriel Bortoleto, Oliver Bearman, Franco Colapinto, Arvid Lindblad, Pierre Gasly · 9 others earlier.
Constructors
4 of 11 teams can still reach the leadA team scores both its cars, so a one-two is 43 a race and 15 a sprint. That is why teams stay alive on far bigger gaps than drivers.
Out of the fight: after the Spanish Grand Prix, Alpine F1 Team, RB F1 Team · after the Italian Grand Prix, Cadillac F1 Team, Aston Martin, Williams, Audi, Haas F1 Team.
The 7 rounds left
183 points for a driver, 316 for a teamEarliest round a title could be sealedSprint weekends carry 8 more points for a driver
How this is worked out
- Still in it means catching the leader is arithmetically possible. A tie counts, because a dead heat goes to countback and that is not something this page should pretend to settle.
- Can reach is a contender's current points plus every point still available. Fall below the leader's current total and you are out.
- Earliest clinch is the most favourable case the arithmetic allows: the leader takes every point between now and then, and every rival takes none. It is what could happen, never a forecast of what will.
- Points are 25 for a win and 8 for a sprint win. A team scores both its cars, so a one-two is 43 a race and 15 a sprint. That is why the two championships have different totals still on the table, and can be settled at different rounds.
- Every figure here is arithmetic over our own race results. Nothing on this page is written by a model, and nothing estimates form or probability.